“Thiiiiings can only get betteeerrr…” is the D:Ream anthem played at any centrist dad, mum, spinster aunt or guncle event worth its fair-trade Himalayan pink salt. Apparently, people are steamed up because we centrist fools seem rather cross right now, which is odd, because things are going so very well. Inflation and interest rates sky high. Falling living standards. Public services on their knees. What japes!
Thirteen years into a Tory-led government, seven years after Brexit, three years after the pandemic, 16 months since Russia invaded Ukraine and five Conservative prime ministers later, it’s safe to say that this country is an absolute shitshow. “Heaven Knows I’m Miserable Now” sung by Morrissey feels very apt.
What about America and Germany? Yes, other Western democracies are having a hard time but none of these countries had their political class actively campaign to make life much harder for their economy, businesses, and citizens by leaving a huge trading bloc. Let’s pray our seven years of bad Brexit luck is running out and we can soon see some of those sunlit uplands.
Because everything has to be polarised and a culture war/fight to the death on Twitter, I’m seeing a lot of whataboutery to try and deflect from the shitshow. “What about the 1990s? I was paying 15 per cent on my mortgage – you lot are lucky.” As if repossessions and negative equity are good things to aspire to. And of course, the wage-to-house price ratio is way higher than it used to be. What about the global crash? Caused by that last Labour government investing in schools and hospitals? Funny how when it’s a Tory government in charge for 13 years, all economic problems are global and nothing to do with them – although that Gordon Brown chap may have done something from his lair in North Queensferry.
The 2008 global crash was terrible and led to many years of austerity and cuts to public services and local government which we are really seeing the effects of now. The public even rewarded the Tories with their first majority in decades despite all that slashing of spending. And here we are years later seeing corrections for idiotic Conservative policies like slashing 20,000 police officers – only to hire the same number years later and expect a big gold star.
But this crisis is different because people are feeling it now, and it’s affecting the middle classes. Yes, that’s unfair – what about the bottom who have been hit? That is correct but British politics is sadly not dictated by the poorest and most vulnerable, or the young who are struggling in crap rental accommodation – it is currently determined by the middle – AKA the “squeezed middle” (Ed Miliband), AKA the “Jams” – the just about managing (Theresa May). You f*** with them and politically it’s over.
An Englishman’s home is his castle, goes the phrase, and that is central to political thinking, especially in the Shires and those traditionally Conservative “Blue Wall” seats. You mess with their mortgages at your peril. Traditional Tory voters were enraged at the Liz Truss mini-Budget because many of them had children or grandchildren whose mortgage offers were pulled. The anger was palpable. For them, it felt like a direct attack on their way of life, their freedom to live their lives, their sense of individual choice for them and their family to do better – all core Tory values.
This is why so many Tories know it’s over. That there is no coming back from this. No amount of culture war hyper-drive is going to make up for your mortgage going up by thousands of pounds a year and all the sleepless nights, fights with the wife and the fear of losing your job as we look like we’re sliding into a recession.
That’s why the light has gone out of the eyes of so many Tories. They are giving up. I have many ask me about life after politics. How to get into broadcasting, or how to make an impact as an opposition backbencher. It feels like the Government has also just gently given up. They won’t even field a Cabinet minister on flagship debate shows with the public like Question Time. Even when one their biggest “achievements”, Brexit, is up for debate.
This week, I chaired the Trade Unlocked conference in Birmingham that attracted the depth and breadth of British business from fishermen to pharmacists to FinTech professionals who want to find solutions to better trade and increased productivity. Not one Government minister could be bothered to turn up. They couldn’t even be arsed to send one of the billion Tory Lords with a business background as a gesture of goodwill. Labour, in contrast, sent two Shadow Cabinet ministers and a senior backbencher.
It feels that Labour really is going to win – not because they’re wowing the crowds with a dazzling vision, but because they turn up. The SNP are in a bad place with infighting, the police investigation, high-profile arrests and their fixation on independence – and they don’t even have an agreed plan for that.
Most sentient Tories are frantically seeking a Shawshank Redemption escape from political life with some honour and dignity intact. And it feels like the Government is just gently giving up. Expect gimmicks about trans people and immigrants, but there won’t be anything substantial which will help stop that Englishman having his castle repossessed.
Labour will soon be the only team on the pitch. It almost feels like the Government is willing that to happen via their quiet-quitting strategy. That’s not how anyone wants to win and it’s not good for our country. For however much longer the Tories are in power, they should care about the country, what they’re leaving the next government and not trash what’s left. Surely that’s the very definition of patriotism.
