A poll showing that the SNP is on course to be defeated by Labour in Scotland at the next general election is a “massive wake-up call” for Humza Yousaf, party insiders have said.
The survey, carried out after the arrest of Nicola Sturgeon last Sunday, suggested that Labour could win more Scottish seats at Westminster than the SNP for the first time since 2010.
It found that Labour could win 26 seats north of the border at next year’s general election, up from one currently, with the SNP on 21, down from the 45 it currently controls.
The Panelbase poll for the Sunday Times also found support for the SNP has dropped, with 34 per cent saying they would vote for the party, down five points compared with the company’s last poll in March.
This puts it level with Labour, up three points over the same period. The Conservatives would take 18% and the Liberal Democrats and Others 7% each. Panelbase interviewed 1,007 people aged 16 and over in Scotland between 12 and 15 June.
The poll confirms a wider trend of falling support for the SNP which began when Ms Sturgeon announced her intention to quit as first minister in February.
This is despite support for Scottish independence remaining roughly the same, with the Panelbase survey putting it on 44 per cent, with support for the Union on 50 per cent.
Polling expert Sir John Curtice said the swing from the SNP to Labour “has occurred almost entirely among Yes supporters”, some of whom who were now “no longer willing to vote for the SNP”.
One senior SNP member told i the poll was a “massive wake-up call for Humza Yousaf and the SNP”, adding: “Reacting to the scale of the challenge is going to be the major test of his leadership, and he’s going to have to be much more decisive and clear about what he stands for and what destination he’s leading Scotland towards if he’s going to get out of this mire.
“The independence vote holding up strongly will provide some comfort and opportunity. But voters are smart enough to know they can sit the next election out on the constitutional question to get rid of a Tory government at Westminster.”
SNP MP Stewart McDonald said his party was facing “challenging [polling] figures for sure” and urged his colleague to pay attention to the public’s desire for something new.
“What we must not do is get spooked into retreating to the sidelines and speaking only to our core vote or adopting easy slogans,” he added.
“There’s absolutely nothing inevitable about a big Labour surge in Scotland, we just need to be smart enough to tune into the mood for change.”
Scottish Labour leader Anas Sarwar said the party was “not complacent” about victory next year and that it still had “a hell of a lot of work to do” in Scotland.
Asked whether securing 26 Scottish seats was a realistic prospect, he told the BBC’s Sunday with Laura Kuenssberg programme: “Two years ago when I became the leader we were 32 points behind the SNP, and if you’d told me then that two years on we’d be neck and neck with the SNP in the opinion polls I wouldn’t have believed you.
“I think something different is happening in Scotland, I think there is momentum with the Scottish Labour Party, I think there is a mood for change, but as I say I’m not complacent.”
Ms Sturgeon was released without charge after being questioned last Sunday as part of a police investigation into the SNP’s finances.
