This is what abandonment looks like. Conservative spinners have, in recent days, claimed the party could lose up to 1000 seats. That may turn out to be an underestimate.
The electorate has delivered an electoral kicking to the Tories up and down the country – from Medway to Middlesbrough.
In 2019, when these seats were last contested – at the height of Brexit stalemate in the dying days of Theresa May’s premiership – the Conservatives lost over 1,300 council seats. Rishi Sunak’s Conservatives were hoping for a few green shoots after the sleaze of Boris Johnson and the trauma of Liz Truss.
They were starting from a low base, and fell further. Many pundits have been contemplating whether this is the early 1990s or the mid-1990s. In other words is Sunak the John Major that succeeded an unpopular Margaret Thatcher, scrapped her punitive poll tax and won an unlikely victory in 1992 against an underwhelming Labour leader? Or is he mid-1990s John Major – merely papering over the cracks of a dysfunctional party inevitably falling out of power.
Labour’s election co-ordinator Shabana Mahmood MP triumphantly told the breakfast news bulletins, “We’re on course for a majority Labour Government at the next General Election … We’ve seen success all over the country.”
Labour has indeed seen some very good results: regaining Stoke and Plymouth, deposing the Tory council leader in Thurrock and winning the Middlesbrough mayoralty. There will likely be several more gains by the time Friday evening draws in.
It seems clear the national opinion polls are accurate and Labour’s 15-point poll lead has translated into real votes at an election.
But step back for a moment and there are also reasons for caution. Conservative pundits argue that Sunak has cauterised the Tory decline and the election results are merely the delayed verdict on the last years of Johnson, Truss and the hangovers, they argue, from Covid (NHS backlogs) and Ukraine (inflation).
They point to Sunak being ahead in some polls of who people prefer as Prime Minister – although most recent polls suggest Starmer edging ahead. Nevertheless the margin between Sunak and Starmer is much lower than the polling gap between Labour and Conservative.
If Sunak can get a bit of luck: the economy picking up, and or inflation dropping sharply, then it could spark a revival.
Speak to Labour frontbenchers and backbenchers – on the right and left of the party – and prior to Thursday’s vote they described Labour’s lead as “strong but soft”. Solid leads but far short of enthusiasm for Labour – more anger at the Tories.
Is that what we’re witnessing as the results are declared? I spoke to several senior Labour figures across the country. One correctly observed, “the Tories have collapsed” but equally common were responses such as “there’s not much enthusiasm” or “I think people see Keir Starmer as a bit dry”. On polling day itself, many were warning of “low turnout”.
Look more deeply at the results and the anti-Tory vote is also being split, with the Greens and LibDems taking their share. And both of them are also winning some head-to-head battles with Labour – as shown by the Lib Dems extending their control of Hull Council, where Labour has all three of the city’s MPs. In Worcester, it was the Greens that capitalised on Tory woes.
In Portsmouth, Labour ended up behind both the Tories and Lib Dems. The former Labour councillor Cal Corkery – who says he was expelled recently for liking a Facebook post from a left-wing group – stood as an independent and retained his seat.
Pollster John Curtice put it like this on the BBC: “perhaps there is a message here that voters are not yet fully enthused about the Labour alternative even if they are clearly disenchanted with the current Conservative government”.
So to go back to the original question – is Labour heading for 1992 (defeat from the jaws of victory) or 1997 (landslide win)? The answer is neither.
The Tories look dead and buried, but Labour hasn’t yet sealed the deal. In the early hours of this morning the BBC’s Nick Robinson said when he interviewed Keir Starmer on the Today programme prior to polling day, he learned more what Starmer was against (abolishing tuition fees or raising income tax on the richest) than what he was for.
That lack of clarity frustrates Labour canvassers and risks breeding distrust in an electorate deeply sceptical of politicians. The Tories have made us despair, Labour needs to give us hope.
Andrew Fisher is the former director of policy at the Labour Party
Local elections 2023
It’s been a tough day for the Tories, and you can follow all the latest news as local election results roll in, in our live-blog here, or check the results on our live map here.
The Tory blame game has begun, with many looking to the ‘damage’ done by Boris Johnson and Liz Truss, while at least one Tory source blamed Rishi Sunak for the losses due to his ‘knifing’ of Boris Johnson. However, it’s unlikely Rishi Sunak will be panicking over the losses.
Labour is confident that the local election results show the party is on track to victory at the next general election, but here’s what the results actually mean for the UK. Keir Starmer knows Scotland is the key to a Labour majority – but he cannot rely on an SNP implosion.
In our Opinion section, the local election results show anti-Tory sentiment, not enthusiasm for Labour, says Andrew Fisher. The local elections show Keir Starmer was right to ditch Jeremy Corbyn’s manifesto, writes Ayesha Hazarika.
