Summer 2023 is set to bring a resurgence in foreign travel with ABTA research showing two-thirds of people plan to go on holiday abroad before the end of the year, but there will be strikes and IT hurdles to negotiate.
Last year, the average flight delay was up by 22 minutes compared with 2019 and approximately two per cent of flights were cancelled, with May and June most heavily affected, according to data from the UK Civil Aviation Authority.
May half term got off to a slow start on Friday when queues of up to four hours formed for arrivals at Heathrow due to an e-gates outage at major airports.
Disruption continued into Saturday as passengers arriving in the country waited to have their passports checked manually.
The delays came after an IT failure at British Airways on Thursday that forced the airline to cancel 175 flights on Thursday and Friday, affecting around 20,000 passengers.
A spokesperson for BA said: “We’re extremely sorry for the disruption some of our customers faced last Thursday due to a technical issue.
“Our teams worked hard to resolve the matter as quickly as possible, with the vast majority of flights continuing to operate as planned.”
Bernard Lavelle, principal aviation consultant at BL Aviation Consulting, said that the travel industry can’t afford a repeat of the disruption seen in summer 2022.
“But there are some dark clouds ahead, which could wreck the best laid plans,” he added.
Summer peak – and the busiest days for travel
With more than 3,000 flights scheduled for Friday 26 May, the start of the bank holiday weekend and half term week saw the highest number of UK departures since before the pandemic, according to aviation analytics firm Cirium.
This summer is already looking busier, with 3,171 UK departure flights scheduled on 25 August. At Heathrow, 21 July has the highest number of scheduled departures, while at Gatwick and Manchester it is 25 August.
ABTA, the travel association, told i. “While we saw a significant surge in overseas holidays last summer following the easing of Covid-19 travel restrictions, this year is set to be much bigger when it comes to holidays abroad.”
The Advantage Travel Partnership, the UK’s largest network of independent travel agents, is also seeing strong demand for summer with 44 per cent of bookings made last week for travel in the next 12 weeks.
Meanwhile, travel booking platform Expedia has seen a 25 per cent increase in searches for international flights departing between 1 June and 31 August compared with the same travel dates in 2022.
Strikes in Europe
Last week’s disruption coincided with strikes by security officers at Heathrow (25–27 May) in dispute over pay. On 26 May, more security officers voted to join action with further dates set to be announced, according to the Unite union.
Industrial action has affected airports and airlines across Europe.
Research by Eurocontrol, a pan-European organisation that supports aviation, revealed that between 1 March and 9 April this year, there were 34 days on which industrial action had an impact on air transport in Europe. It estimated that this could have potentially affected 237,000 flights.
Rhys Jones of the UK frequent flyer website headforpoints.com told i: “While airlines and airports have had a year to increase their resilience since the chaos we saw last summer, there are still some challenges ahead. Top of the list will be any strike action which continues to dog air travel and can be very unpredictable.”
Strikes by French Air Traffic Control could have the strongest impact. France, unlike other European countries, does not allow overflying (flights over its airspace) during strike action, so flights must be re-routed. This can lead to knock-on delays.
UK Border Force staff who are members of the Public and Commercial Services Union have also staged regular strike action since December 2022. With military personnel trained to cover striking workers, the strikes have caused limited disruption.
The PCS Union’s Home Office members (including Border Force) voted earlier this month to renew their strike ballot. This means they can take strike action any time over the next six months, providing the PCS gives the employer a fortnight’s notice.
The Immigration Services Union (ISU) is also considering strikes over summer.
Meanwhile, passengers at Edinburgh airport have been warned of disruption due to walk outs this summer. Staff represented by the Unite union have voted to take part in strike action in a dispute relating to pay and working conditions.
Martyn Sumners, executive director of AITO, The Specialist Travel Association, said: “It’s very difficult to predict how smooth the summer will be.
“Under normal circumstances you would expect all eventualities to have been planned for, but strikes can come from so many different sectors – be it airline crew or pilots, ground handlers, baggage handlers or air traffic control and even rail strikes could affect travellers.
“The Government will no doubt be liaising with all parties, particularly airports, however it’s not always easy to predict where issues might arise next.”
e-gates failures
The e-gates failure that affected travellers at Heathrow, Gatwick and Manchester last weekend is likely to arise again this summer, according to John Grant, aviation analyst at OAG, a global travel data provider.
He told i “I’d bet my mortgage” on it.
Technological flaws were made evident by the number of recent breakdowns, he said, adding: “I’ve personally experienced it at least twice in the last eighteen months.”
A report by David Neal, the Independent Chief Inspector of Borders and Immigration, found that in the last three months of 2019, there were 23 occasions when all e-gates at one location weren’t working.
Portugal-based company Vision-Box is contracted by the Home Office to manage the passport e-gates.
In Mr Neal’s report, which was published 16 months ago, the firm raised concerns with inspectors about a missing “system integration” to manage and assess the performance of the e-gates.
The report added that there was “some confusion within the Home Office over which business area” would perform the system integration role.
A Home Office spokesperson told i: “Following a technical border system fault which affected e-Gate arrivals into the UK, we can confirm all e-Gates are now operating as normal.
“We thank those travellers who were impacted for their patience and staff for their work in resolving the issue.”
Luggage processing problems
Flight delays, cancellations and staffing had a knock-on effect as the number of bags that went astray almost doubled, according to the aviation industry’s IT provider Sita.
Sita’s Baggage IT Insights report refers to an “exponential increase in the mishandled baggage rate by 74.7 per cent to 7.6 bags per thousand passengers in 2022”.
Asked what passengers should expect this summer, a Sita spokesperson said: “The overall increase in mishandled bags is forcing the industry to focus on digitalisation and automation, with technology investments that deliver greater automation and self-service for passenger being a top priority.
“The industry may not have all the answers come this summer. But those airlines and airports that started earlier will be best placed to manage the surge in passenger numbers in the coming weeks.”
Industry outlook
Mr Lavelle named IT issues as one of his main concerns for this summer.
“BA has a history of IT problems, suggesting an underlying IT weakness that hasn’t been fully addressed yet. It wouldn’t put me off booking BA, but I would be wary.”
He is optimistic for the coming season, however: “A lot of 2022’s problems were due to staff shortages and both airlines and airports have been on huge recruiting drives to ensure they have enough staff this summer to deal with the expected high demand.”
Julia Lo Bue-Said, CEO of The Advantage Travel Partnership, said: “I am confident that everyone across the travel ecosystem is working hard to prepare for the large numbers of people who will be travelling this summer and will be putting in place contingency plans to mitigate any issues that might arise.”
